Prediction market giants Kalshi and Polymarket are exhibiting a current surge in bets on right-wing populist Abelardo de la Espriella to be the eventual winner of Colombia’s presidential election on the finish of Might.
The markets are out of line with typical polls in Colombia, which have leftist candidate Ivan Cepeda comfortably leading the race with de la Espriella in second, adopted by center-right candidate Paloma Valencia.
Within the final week, nonetheless, bets on de la Espriella to win the election have elevated relative to bets on his rivals.
On Might 1, de la Espriella was given a 28.8% probability of victory while Cepeda was given 38% on betting market Kalshi. As of Might 8, de la Espriella has overtaken Cepeda by 1 share level, reaching 42%.
Polymarket exhibits an analogous pattern. De la Espriella’s odds have risen from 28% to 39% during the last seven days, although he nonetheless trails Cepeda, who stays on 41%.
Over time, the race has been extra measured. Since September of final 12 months, Kalshi guess knowledge present de la Espriella and Cepeda wrangling for first and second locations till March when Valencia exploded onto the scene following her win in the precise wing political occasion major by which de la Espriella didn’t take part. She has since dropped – each on prediction markets, and within the polls.
Sergio Guzmán, director of Colombia Danger Evaluation, isn’t satisfied of the predictive energy of betting markets within the case of Colombia’s elections.
He observes that, earlier than the Colombian primaries in March, Valencia was unfancied on betting markets. She stormed to victory with 3,236,286 votes within the primaries whereas her occasion obtained 16% of the vote share in legislative elections. In the meantime, de la Espriella declined to participate in a major, however the occasion he leads, Movimiento de Salvación Nacional, gained solely 4% of the vote share. Cepeda’s occasion, Pacto Historico, held a major in October 2025 which he gained with 1,186,095 votes.
“The most effective data now we have means that Cepeda and Paloma have the best confirmed means to get votes,” Guzman informed Latin America Reviews. “To me, that implies one thing is off within the prediction markets.”
The Poll Weighting Index from information web site La Silla Vacia combines polling knowledge from the 5 licensed polling corporations and finds that de la Espriella has 24% of voter intention, whereas Cepeda has 38%.
This is able to be adequate to earn the right-wing populist a spot within the second spherical, however the identical ballot index suggests de la Espriella would lose the second spherical by three factors to Cepeda.
The difficulty with prediction markets for polling
While prediction markets usually are not new, the current rise within the recognition of websites equivalent to Kalshi and Polymarket, presents challenges to democratic processes that require higher public understanding.
In contrast to polls, prediction markets don’t measure voting intentions however the hunches of traders. They permit customers to commerce cryptocurrency-based shares on future occasions. Right predictions pay $1 per share; incorrect ones lose their worth.
Thus, reasonably than being a median of customers’ chance beliefs, prediction markets are skewed in direction of the predictions of these with extra capital to commit and are susceptible to manipulation by these with the means to affect the notion of the probability of an final result.
There may be some proof that prediction markets have outperformed polls on electoral margins forecasting, however each get considerably extra correct nearer to the expected occasion and shouldn’t be handled as reflecting the chance of an final result.
Kalshi’s marketplace for bets on the Colombian presidential election is comparatively shallow, with solely USD $385,390 guess on the time of writing, making the percentages notably unstable, and doubtlessly susceptible to manipulation.
Coljuegos, the state-owned physique chargeable for regulating on-line playing in Colombia, doesn’t acknowledge both Kalshi or Polymarket as a certified operator.
Adjustments to Colombia’s ballot course of
The discrepancy between ballot knowledge and prediction market knowledge could partly replicate the age of the accessible polling knowledge. In Colombia, the newest licensed surveys have been performed no later than April 30, that means all publicly accessible polling is now greater than per week outdated.
Prediction markets equivalent to Kalshi and Polymarket, against this, replace constantly, with odds shifting hour by hour as merchants react to new data.
Whereas most polling knowledge isn’t instantaneous, the elevated delays stem from electoral polling regulations launched in Colombia final 12 months. The principles successfully impose a gagging order on polls till the Nationwide Electoral Council (CNE) has reviewed their methodology and respondent metadata.
Consequently, the publication of voter intention polling has slowed significantly, usually lagging by greater than per week.
Spanish polling and consulting agency GAD3 has suspended polling operations on Colombia’s presidential elections, arguing that the brand new necessities make dependable analysis impractical.
In a statement, the corporate stated it was “unfeasible to hold out social analysis with the minimal ensures of rigor and operational viability.”
The prediction market phenomenon getting into Latin American politics – because it has around the globe – can be an attention-grabbing pattern to observe.
For his half, Guzmán suspects that the prediction markets are extra reactive than predictive, however understands that individuals want “a spot the place they’ll go to assuage their anxiousness,” within the absence of extra common polling updates.
Featured picture: Screenshot of Kalshi marketplace for Colombia’s upcoming election taken on Might 9.
Picture credit score: Kalshi
