MEXICO CITY — President-elect Trump’s nomination of Florida’s Marco Rubio to change into the primary Hispanic secretary of State has brought on fewer shockwaves than his more controversial picks, nevertheless it has caught the eye of Latin America, a area not used to having a Western Hemisphere skilled main U.S. diplomacy.
The three-term GOP senator and former presidential candidate, a widely known hawk on coverage towards authoritarian regimes similar to Cuba and Venezuela, will work together with a area that’s undergone a seismic shift in its politics, with key U.S. allies gravitating towards rivals, together with Havana and Caracas.
However Rubio may need restricted sources to take care of the area, with red-hot geopolitical challenges in Europe and the Center East and the ever-looming menace of Chinese language growth within the Pacific on his plate.
Bipartisan help
He would, nonetheless, take over State with important political capital, as his nomination has drawn reward from either side of the aisle.
“I’ve usually labored on this [Western Hemisphere] Subcommittee with my colleague Marco Rubio, and I’m very joyful he shall be, I believe, secretary of State in Donald Trump’s administration,” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) advised reporters in Spanish on a name final week.
“Senator Rubio has a terrific curiosity within the Americas. In my view, many occasions up to now the secretary of State has not had nice curiosity within the Americas, however with a Secretary of State Marco Rubio, now we have a person who has labored usually within the area, so I wish to work with him to focus extra on the Americas,” added Kaine, who presently chairs the Senate Overseas Relations Western Hemisphere Subcommittee, the place Rubio is the top-ranking Republican.
Rubio, who would be the first Hispanic high U.S. diplomat, has straight engaged Latin American points — usually as a fierce critic of leftist authoritarianism within the area — over the course of his profession. Like different Cuban Individuals vocal in U.S. politics, he’s seen as a direct rival, if not an enemy, by officers in Havana, Caracas and Managua.
For some human rights teams, Rubio’s hawkishness on these regimes is a plus, even when these organizations don’t see eye-to-eye with the incoming Trump administration on a big selection of points.
“I want, and it is a very, very trustworthy want, that he would have the time to concentrate to Latin America and Cuba, as he did as a senator, I believe it’s going to return to who he picks to be the undersecretary of State for the Western Hemisphere and the deputy assistant secretary of State answerable for particular affairs like Cuba,” mentioned Hugo Acha, director of analysis and outreach for the Basis for Human Rights in Cuba.
“If he has a workforce that represents his imaginative and prescient, which I imagine, once more, is in the very best curiosity of democracy within the area, then Secretary of State Rubio can go down within the books because the man who carried out the oversight within the transition to a democratic Cuba and possibly recovering democracy within the Western Hemisphere.”
‘An actual alternative’
With 14 years within the Senate and eight years as a Florida state legislator earlier than that, Rubio is nicely linked within the Latin America coverage house.
Nevertheless, staffing the State Division’s practically 300 political appointments is usually a daunting job for any legislator veering into government workplace.
And the division’s profession officers are, like others all through the federal authorities, leery of the incoming Trump administration’s plans to intestine the federal workforce.
Within the first Trump administration, former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson pledged to decreased mixed civil and international service posts by 8 %. The division reduce about 1,500 jobs by the top of fiscal 2018, earlier than rising by about 1,000 jobs beneath former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who succeeded Tillerson.
As a result of Latin America has lengthy taken a again seat to different areas as a geopolitical precedence, the pool of specialists within the area is comparatively small, that means Rubio will seemingly require the experience of State Division civil and international service officers to considerably sway U.S. coverage within the area.
And amongst Rubio’s supporters, expectations are excessive.
“I believe that it is a actual alternative for the Cuban individuals to stand up once more and have their voices heard, and this time, they’ll have help from the Trump administration and from our secretary of State,” Rep. María Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) advised The Hill.
“One of many greatest issues we’ll attempt to do is get web to the island in terms of the protests to ensure the world sees how they’ve been shut down and the way younger persons are being jailed and the way they’re being brutalized by the regime’s army in try to silence them. And I believe that we’ll have the help this time from the State Division, the place we’ve not beforehand had it.”
Rep. Carlos Giménez (R-Fla.), who was born in Cuba, mentioned “there’s at all times carrots and sticks,” however he set the bar on Cuba at regime change, a aim successive U.S. governments have failed to perform for greater than 60 years.
“We all know that some individuals inside this [Biden] administration are literally sympathetic to that regime. Marco Rubio will not be sympathetic to that regime, OK? And neither am I. And I truly imagine that is the time. I am Cuban. I used to be born in Cuba. You understand, the place I got here from, my homeland, has been beneath an oppressive regime for over 60 years. That is the Western Hemisphere. We needs to be the champion of democracy,” mentioned Giménez.
Democrats who’re against Cuban communism say the aftermath of any potential regime change would current its personal challenges, which may very well be tough to handle beneath the Trump administration’s isolationist tendencies, Rubio however.
“Marco, because the secretary, may need all the greatest intentions on this planet to do what’s wanted to push Cuba to lastly make this variation to democracy. However what occurs if the Cuban individuals do what they should do, after which what occurs the day after? There’s received to be a dedication by the administration to help these efforts in no matter means that appears like, however probably it will be sources,” mentioned María Cardona, a Democratic strategist.
“In order that, I believe, is the problem when you may have Trump because the incoming president, whose focus is ‘America first,’ and big concentrate on isolationism, if you’ll. Will he be capable to look past that to the good thing about having a democratic Cuba 90 miles to the south of our border? And what’s going to that imply when it comes to committing sources to be sure that that occurs in the best way that it ought to so it does not fall into — just like the USSR did — does not fall into like prison enterprises, the cartels, which I am certain are able to pounce, every time that occurs, what’s the administration prepared and dedicated to doing?”
And hawkishness on Cuba and Venezuela is not going to reap reward amongst some key U.S. companions within the area, notably Mexico.
Relations with Mexico
“Most likely an important factor proper now could be oil. As you in all probability know, three ships have principally saved the regime’s neck within the final couple of weeks, one in all them being a Mexican tanker, , the opposite ones have been Russian,” mentioned Acha, referring to a tanker carrying 400,000 barrels of oil that Mexico dispatched in October to assist Cuba navigate its power disaster.
Mexico will, no matter what occurs in Ukraine, East Asia or the Center East, require important consideration from the Trump administration.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is sympathetic with the Cuban authorities, not less than to the tune of all that oil, however she has dedicated her nation’s financial future to North American financial integration beneath the United States-Mexico-Canada Settlement (USMCA), which is up for revision in 2026.
Mexico and the USA have the only greatest country-to-country buying and selling partnership on this planet, with important cross-border investments which have created built-in provide traces that, if damaged, are prone to trigger inflationary pressures.
It’s a close to certainty that bilateral cooperation — or lack thereof — on migration and transnational crime will seep into USMCA negotiations, which can already be tense, given rising Chinese language funding in Mexico.
“I believe [Mexico] wish to cooperate with the USA. Perceive that almost all of the those that crossed the border illegally will not be Mexican nationals. They’re individuals from everywhere in the world, actually over 100-plus nations from everywhere in the world, and Mexico is simply the transit level,” mentioned Rubio on EWTN’s “The World Over With Raymond Arroyo” earlier this month.
Rubio mentioned the Biden administration’s immigration insurance policies incentivized Mexico and its southern neighbors to permit migrants to cross their territories on their strategy to the USA. Mexican enforcement has been a major issue within the drop in border crossings over the previous six months.
“Now, if the president is saying, ‘No, you may’t come right here anymore, we’re not going to will let you are available in.’ Now, the Mexican authorities goes to have an incentive to say, ‘Effectively, you are not coming by right here both.’ And that can go proper down the chain. I imply, that will even apply all the best way up and all the way down to Panama, the place within the Darien Hole is — the place a few of these journeys start for a lot of of those migrants. I do count on them to cooperate as a result of it is of their curiosity to cooperate, however they’re solely going to cooperate if it aligns with our insurance policies, and they’re going to beneath Donald Trump.”
It’s nonetheless unclear how a lot Mexico will tolerate U.S. stress on Cuba and to what extent the nation can sustain its migration enforcement efforts, however direct U.S. army involvement in opposition to cartels on Mexican territory, which Trump has threatened, is nearly actually a purple line.
Rep. Tim Waltz (R-Fla.), Trump’s choose for White Home nationwide safety advisor, has been hawkish on U.S. army intervention in opposition to Mexican cartels, a risk that Rubio mentioned may occur “so long as there may be cooperation from the Mexican authorities.”
In a 2023 interview with Mexican each day El Common, Rubio, who’s fluent in Spanish, criticized former Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Sheinbaum’s mentor, who usually offered a friendlier face in direct interactions with the USA whereas spouting sharp anti-American rhetoric to home audiences.
“Mexico is a crucial associate of the USA. The nation, its establishments. However López Obrador will not be a great ally. The present president, sadly, is devoted to speaking nonsense, to interfering in U.S. coverage. His pondering is past the left, an odd pondering when it comes to that line with all these dictators within the hemisphere. And he has a home coverage with which he has handed over a big a part of his nationwide territory to the drug traffickers who management these areas,” mentioned Rubio within the interview.
Rubio’s understanding of regional politics is definite to be examined, however Latin America observers say a secretary of State with any in-depth understanding of the area shall be a welcome change from previous U.S. administrations.
“In my view nearly no administration pays sufficient consideration to the Americas, however I’ve confidence that Secretary Rubio can pay a whole lot of consideration to the area, and I’ll do what I can to help his efforts within the area. Many different nations, particularly Russia, China and others are paying extra consideration than the USA, and it’s time for an enormous change on that,” mentioned Kaine.
