A brand new exit ballot of battleground state voters discovered that President-elect Trump’s financial message broke via demographic boundaries, constructing a nationwide coalition that Vice President Harris was unable to match.
The ballot, commissioned by Strategy to Win, a pro-Democratic electoral technique group, oversampled Black, Latino and Asian-American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
“I do not know if it is shocking, however I believe that it is sturdy, is simply how a lot considerations in regards to the economic system actually transcended racial, instructional and demographic strains on this election to actually change into the decisive issue, that there was an actual power in how Trump voters named the economic system and immigration as driving their selection, whereas on Harris’s facet there have been loads of totally different form of solutions, and it wasn’t as clear minimize,” stated Jenifer Fernandez Ancona, vp of Strategy to Win.
And the ballot confirmed Trump — and his rhetoric — had been central to most voters’ determination course of, whether or not they voted for him or not.
In keeping with the survey, Trump was the first cause that Harris-voting respondents named because the decisive issue of their selection. That reply was the identical each amongst all Harris voters and amongst persuadable voters who finally picked her.
The highest deciding subject for Trump voters usually was the economic system, however persuadable voters had been swayed by Trump’s portrayals of Harris.
One voter polled, a 67-year-old Black man from Wisconsin registered as a Democrat, stated he voted for Trump as a result of “Kamala is an empty candidate,” based on the ballot memo.
Whereas Trump’s financial message usually transcended demographic boundaries, gaps in training, socioeconomic standing and media consumption marked voting tendencies in battleground states.
Trump received over a majority of non-college graduates: 56 p.c of respondents in that group selected the Republican nominee, whereas 43 p.c went for the Democrat. Amongst faculty graduates, the state of affairs was reversed, with 55 p.c choosing Harris and 43 p.c choosing Trump.
The ballot confirmed a transparent distinction between faculty commencement charges and earnings gaps — Trump, although favored by non-college graduates, solely obtained the assist of 43 p.c of respondents with yearly incomes of lower than $50,000, whereas Harris received 56 p.c of that group.
That earnings distinction was constant via totally different demographic teams. Harris edged Trump amongst Latinos with under-$50,000 earnings by 11 web share factors, and the 2 candidates had been basically tied amongst white voters in that earnings bracket, with a two share web benefit for Trump.
That tie, with a minuscule benefit for Trump, held amongst Latinos each within the $50,000-$100,000 bracket, and Latinos with a $100,000-plus yearly earnings.
The ballot discovered a flat tie amongst Latinos who didn’t graduate faculty, 49 p.c every, and a seven-point benefit for Harris amongst faculty educated Latinos, no matter earnings.
“I believe it goes to the nuance of the working class, proper? So not all working class might be simply correlated with training. That may be a very crude mind-set about working class. And I believe we’ve too usually made that assumption that that non-college form of means working class. After all, there’s loads of overlap there, however the working class is various and totally different and attention-grabbing and sophisticated,” stated Fernandez Ancona.
One of many largest gaps in voter preferences was associated to media consumption.
A whopping 77 p.c of people that primarily get their information from podcasts voted for Trump, whereas 22 p.c voted for Harris, a mirror picture of respondents who primarily get their information from newspapers, 77 p.c of whom voted for Harris whereas 21 p.c voted for Trump.
TV viewers had been kind of evenly break up, with 51 p.c favoring Harris and 48 p.c favoring Trump.
The 2 candidates additionally break up social media channels: Trump had a web constructive of 31 share factors over Harris amongst individuals who get their information primarily from Fb and a plus-seven web with YouTube viewers.
Harris received over TikTok customers with a web constructive of 26 share factors over Trump, and Instagram viewers with a web 12 share level benefit.
In keeping with Fernandez Ancona, the ballot discovered that TV continues to be the highest supply of stories for 43 p.c of respondents, adopted by podcasts, a medium relied upon by 15 p.c of respondents. Newspaper readers accounted for 9 p.c of respondents, and TikTok was the first supply of knowledge for 8 p.c of respondents.
“Clearly the overwhelming majority [are] getting their information from TV. However podcasts are a rising medium … and why the voters who’re listening to podcasts are typically extra working class, or that is one of many points, is that individuals who have sure form of jobs, whether or not it is like driving or working in a manufacturing facility or working in a inventory room, you possibly can take heed to audio for a very long time. You might have extra time when you’re truly at your job, with the ability to take heed to audio, whereas with newspapers, you realize you possibly can’t, proper? It’s important to learn them. It’s important to have time to put aside and skim them,” stated Fernandez Ancona.
The ballot was performed amongst 2,100 voters in battleground states, oversampling 150 Latino voters, 100 Black voters and 100 AAPI voters, reporting an general 2 share level margin of error for the complete pattern, 5.3 p.c for Latinos, 5 p.c for Black respondents, and seven.5 p.c for AAPI respondents.
