After successful reelection, Donald Trump moved at warp velocity to meet a number of daring MAGA guarantees—from dismantling the “deep state” to successfully handing Ukraine over to Russia. None of this was shocking; he had brazenly acknowledged his intentions. What’s shocking; nevertheless, are his repeated threats in opposition to Mexico, asserting that the U.S. reserves the correct to unilaterally
invade in pursuit of drug cartels, which it now considers terrorist organizations.
Slightly than treating neighboring nations—Mexico and even Canada—as sovereign companions, Trump has taken a paternalistic, virtually monarchical method, making an attempt to impose his will by coercion and intimidation. But this technique could backfire, with penalties that stretch far past U.S. borders.
Trump’s actions and remedy of world leaders evoke a method of diplomacy harking back to the nineteenth century. For Mexicans, specifically, it recollects an extended historical past of American interventionism—manifest in doctrines and insurance policies just like the Monroe Doctrine, the Roosevelt Corollary, Gunboat Diplomacy, Large Stick Diplomacy, the Good Neighbor Coverage, and Operation Condor. Again and again, such interventions have destabilized and even toppled governments, together with democratically elected ones.
This isn’t the nineteenth century, and as we speak’s Mexico is a vastly completely different nation. Regardless of the detrimental propaganda a few porous border, the truth is kind of the other. The U.S.-Mexico border is the hub of a $250 billion annual commerce partnership that advantages each nations. This symbiotic relationship—spanning industries from automotive and electronics to medical gear and agriculture—creates tens of millions of jobs on either side. But, none of this appears to matter to Trump and the MAGA motion.
For conservatives and MAGA loyalists, hostility towards Mexico is extra than simply coverage—it’s an obsession. What started as slanderous rhetoric, branding Mexicans as drug dealers, criminals, and rapists, has escalated into an agenda that extends past the deportation of undocumented immigrants. Now, the main focus is on attacking Mexico itself. Trump and his supporters have embraced a savior advanced, claiming that if Mexico is not going to “save itself,” he’ll do it for them.
The narrative follows a well-known trajectory: We have now to do one thing! → Mexico is corrupt! → Mexico should obey america!
This rhetoric isn’t solely reckless—it’s dangerously actual. Within the minds of Trump and his motion, “Mexico” and “cartel” are actually one and the identical.
To be clear, drug trafficking—particularly fentanyl—is a severe difficulty, however it’s not only a drawback for america. Mexico should work to curb, if not get rid of, drug manufacturing and distribution, however it can’t accomplish that alone. Why? As a result of this isn’t merely a nationwide difficulty; it’s a world one. Addressing it requires a multifaceted approach.
Right here’s the problem in a nutshell: Mexican cartels produce and visitors medication as a result of there’s a large and profitable market within the U.S. In the meantime, the overwhelming majority of the weapons cartels use to guard their operations come from the U.S. The U.S. has a drug consumption drawback; Mexico has a violent cartel drawback. It’s a two-way road that requires a two-way answer.
To spotlight the complexities concerned: according to the DEA, fentanyl distribution isn’t solely tied to Mexico—it additionally entails sources in China, India, and Canada. U.S. ports, personal carriers like FedEx and UPS, the darkish internet, and social media all facilitate its unfold. Moreover, American monetary establishments assist transfer cash for these illicit networks.
In the meantime, the ATF stories that 74 percent of guns seized in Mexico had been trafficked from the U.S., fueling cartel violence. The issue is so extreme that Mexico has taken the problem to the U.S. Supreme Court, arguing that stricter arms management on the border would considerably cut back crime. In response, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is pushing for constitutional reforms that will impose the harshest penalties beneath Mexican legislation for foreigners concerned within the manufacturing, smuggling, and distribution of firearms.
Mexico understands the stakes. Any unilateral army motion by america to dismantle the cartels would set off nationwide outrage and destabilize the entire region. The Mexican public is not going to stand for it. As a sovereign nation, Mexico could be compelled to defend itself by any means needed.
Past that, geopolitical realities can’t be ignored. U.S. adversaries could be fast to supply Mexico help, and regional powers wouldn’t tolerate such an affront to a hemispheric ally. Mexicans have endured occupation earlier than, and they won’t tolerate one other. Even when the U.S. had been to say victory within the brief time period, Mexico would play the lengthy sport. Historical past has proven that occupiers usually face extended resistance and are finally pressured to withdraw after years of battle.
If the rhetoric about attacking cartels is merely a ploy to instill worry or strain Mexico into motion, it has failed spectacularly. As a substitute of bending to Trump’s threats, Mexico has responded with intensified nationalist resolve, uniting round the necessity to defend itself in opposition to an more and more untrustworthy neighbor.
Trump’s threats in opposition to Mexico are proving to be extra than simply reckless rhetoric—they’re a political and financial legal responsibility. Even Vice President J.D. Vance has rejected the thought of army motion, signaling divisions inside Trump’s personal camp. In the meantime, the inventory market has reacted negatively, reflecting fears of instability, and Trump himself has already reversed course on tariffs, realizing that financial warfare with Mexico would damage the U.S. simply as a lot.
Regardless of his powerful speak, Trump is dealing with the boundaries of his personal technique. The U.S.-Mexico relationship is simply too intertwined for simplistic threats, and his current backtracking means that actuality is setting in. If Trump needs stability, safety, and financial progress, Trump should abandon the fantasy of unilateral aggression and acknowledge Mexico as a needed accomplice, not a political scapegoat.
Gabriel Buelna holds a PhD in Political Science from Claremont Graduate College and serves as a college member within the Chicana/o Research Division at California State College, Northridge. He’s additionally a practising Household and Felony Legislation lawyer in California. Dr. Buelna can also be a Trustee for the Los Angeles Neighborhood Faculty District and may be reached at gabriel@buelnalaw.com
Enrique M. Buelna is a college member within the Historical past Division at Cabrillo Faculty, specializing in Chicano historical past with an emphasis on class, race, labor, radical activism, civil rights, immigration, tradition, and identification. He’s the writer of Chicano Communists and the Battle for Social Justice (2019). Dr. Buelna earned his doctorate in historical past from the College of California, Irvine, and holds an M.A. in Public Administration from the College of Washington, Seattle. The writer may be reached at embuelna@gmail.com.
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