In November 2024, when President Donald Trump gained 38.3% of the vote in California, this was 4 share factors greater than he gained in 2020. It was a small shift to the correct, owing to many elements amongst subgroups of voters. However what half did younger voters play in it?
Based on nationwide exit polls, Trump made beneficial properties inside the youth vote — usually categorized as voters ages 18-29 — in 2024 in comparison with 2020. Consultants say causes for this shift, each nationally and right here in California, might vary from fewer younger individuals turning out to vote to adjustments in ideology.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris gained California in her 2024 presidential bid by over 3 million votes. Nevertheless, Trump elevated his share of votes in 45 out of 58 California counties from 2020 to 2024, in keeping with a CalMatters analysis. Imperial, Merced and Sutter counties noticed among the greatest beneficial properties.
Nationally, 7% of youth voters who voted for Former President Joe Biden in 2020 switched to vote for Trump in 2024, in keeping with impartial analysis carried out by The Middle for Info and Analysis on Civic Studying and Engagement, a nonpartisan analysis group primarily based at Tufts College in Boston.
Regardless of this nationwide shift, younger Californians are more likely to identify as Democrats and liberals. Eric McGhee, a senior fellow on the Public Coverage Institute of California, defined that rightward shifts within the state don’t essentially point out the identical for the youth vote.
“The people who find themselves turning out to vote could be totally different than the broader inhabitants of individuals from that demographic, and even than the individuals who usually vote in that demographic,” McGhee stated.
Some could select to not vote altogether. The Tufts College analysis group lately estimated that the nationwide 2024 youth voter turnout was 42%, in comparison with 52% to 55% in 2020.
Adam Tallabas, a 26-year-old graduate of Cal State Lengthy Seaside and present chair of Orange County Younger Democrats, met younger residents in his group who deliberate on not voting on this election. When talking to Orange County residents below the age of 35, Tallabas discovered that monetary strains like paying lease and pupil mortgage debt had been on the coronary heart of their apathy towards voting.
“Folks, they’ve a lot happening of their family that it’s exhausting for them to deal with what’s happening exterior of that family,” he stated.
In 2020, 53.5% of Orange County voters selected Biden in comparison with 44.4% who selected Trump. That margin shrunk in 2024 when 49.7% of voters selected Harris in comparison with 47.1% who selected Trump. The county additionally noticed 129,173 fewer votes total in 2024 than in 2020, roughly an 8.35% lower in turnout price.
“A giant a part of why younger individuals don’t vote is as a result of they’re much less rooted to their communities. They’re not owners by and huge … They haven’t reached that stage of life the place they really feel fairly as, form of, linked to issues,” stated McGhee, who has carried out analysis on the nonpartisan suppose tank for over 17 years.
Younger Californians of all political events are much less likely to be homeowners than these above the age of 34, in keeping with a Public Coverage Institute of California statewide survey.
Based mostly on a CNN national exit poll, Harris gained over younger voters, with 54% of voters ages 18-29 voting for her to Trump’s 43%; nonetheless, the margin between the 2 candidates is way smaller than it was between Biden and Trump. CNN’s 2020 exit poll confirmed Biden profitable 60% of the youth vote whereas Trump gained solely 36%, a lot lower than he obtained this previous election.
Whereas nationwide exit polls reveal some details about the youth vote in 2024, there have been no exit polls for California and neither the state nor the federal authorities launch age-specific voting knowledge. This, McGhee defined, makes it tough to research younger voters in California however opinion polling and interviews assist shed some mild on attitudes inside this demographic.
Private finance points, similar to housing and inflation, had been high points for younger individuals who did vote, The Brookings Institution discovered, with some seeing Trump as the answer.
Samantha Dalby, a 29-year-old monetary advisor from Newport Seaside, famous her perception that “Trump ran the nation much like a enterprise.” This is without doubt one of the causes she and a whole lot of her friends in Newport’s monetary house are excited in regards to the incoming Trump administration, particularly the conservative promise of “company tax cuts, that are essential for lots of enterprise homeowners.”
hile exit polls use age teams as one strategy to present voting patterns, Alice Siu, affiliate director for the Stanford Deliberative Democracy Lab, emphasizes being cautious about categorizing the “youth vote” as one demographic. She famous that younger voters maintain various traits similar to geography, identification and funds, to not point out the big selection of experiences inside the age vary of 18-29.
Get together votes diverse amongst varied racial and ethnic teams of younger voters as effectively, in keeping with the Tufts College analysis group’s analysis of an AP VoteCast Survey. Trump appeared to win amongst younger, white voters whereas Harris gained amongst Black, Latino and Asian younger voters. But the CNN exit ballot nonetheless confirmed 46% of Latino respondents voted for Trump in 2024, a 14 share level improve from 2020.
One other means through which the youth vote differed was by gender, with Trump profitable large with younger males, receiving 56% of their vote nationally whereas 58% of younger girls voted for Harris.
Sunjay Muralitharan, nationwide vp of Faculty Democrats of America and a 20-year-old pupil at UC San Diego, stated the shortcoming to succeed in younger males was one of many Democratic Get together’s failures this previous election.
“After I spoke to extra individuals and took my very own crack at form of determining what went unsuitable, I observed that a whole lot of younger males felt like they had been solely handled as allies of girls, moderately than being represented themselves,” Muralitharan stated. “I believe this was actually disheartening as a result of a whole lot of the insurance policies that we pushed for additionally profit younger males.”
Ethan Petty, a 26-year-old man dwelling in Bakersfield — positioned in a county that additionally noticed a rightward shift — expressed his help for Harris. He famous that whereas he didn’t really feel robust pleasure for Harris as a candidate, he discovered her to be favorable to Trump, noting worries about abortion and LGBTQ+ rights below a Trump administration.
“I’m fairly scared about what, you understand, Donald Trump and the absolutely Republican-controlled authorities and Supreme Courtroom will do to perhaps change the legal guidelines of the land sooner or later,” he stated. “I’m simply form of frightened of the long run in the intervening time.”
Trump’s choose for vp, J.D. Vance, excited some younger Republican voters, in keeping with Cynthia Kaui, 30, vice chair of the California Younger Republican Federation. At simply 40 years outdated, Vance would be the nation’s third-youngest vp.
“The truth that there may be some stage of illustration, you understand, within the highest stage of presidency that one can obtain in politics, that was one thing that, you understand, our membership was very enthusiastic about,” Kaui stated.
Some younger voters, like Antonia Lopez, had been dissatisfied with all their decisions on the polls. The 22-year-old resident of San Bernardino expressed her disapproval of the Democratic occasion’s marketing campaign and her view that it was “encouraging right-wing sentiment” by means of strikes similar to highlighting an endorsement from outstanding Republican Liz Cheney.
Lopez listed the Israel-Hamas battle, bodily autonomy, freedom of the press, disseminating misinformation, and well being care as a few of her high points. Although Lopez solid a vote for Harris, she didn’t really feel represented by any candidate within the race and is “pessimistic” in regards to the presidency and insurance policies to return.
“Particularly as I’m getting older and these points change into extra daunting, I really feel like the problems that I care about are being deserted,” she stated.
